Hope Is Never A Good Strategy  (PDF)

Greece’s end should have occurred three years ago. If it was allowed to follow every other bankruptcy process, today Greece would have been well on its way to recovery. What should have cost a few billion is now certainly going to cost hundreds of billions and maybe even hitting trillions once all is said and done.

On June 17, 2012 Greeks will once again head to the polls. We have no idea of the outcome. All we know is that Greece has already lost everything it had – it can’t lose much more. Rather, the biggest losers will certainly be the rest of Europe and this is why you will see subtle, then not so subtle and then lunatic fringe campaigning by Brussels to ensure that Greeks vote to remain in the Euro-zone.

The talking heads will tell you that we’ll have to wait until June 17 for this drama to unfold. IceCap is telling you the drama will happen before this pivotal day.
We fully expect The Troika (European Central Bank, European Union and International Monetary Fund) with the blessing of the US Federal Reserve to announce yet another save the day money printing scheme. We also fully expect markets to rally strongly on the news.
We speak often with investors and other managers on a regular basis and the high degree of complacency towards these very real problems continues to amaze us.

                                    ……… Icecap Asset Management