Thoughts from the Frontline 

....Energy prices are down and do not yet seem to have found a bottom. Oil is down 25%, which will soon show up in savings at the pump....everyone the equivalent of a small tax break (which, unless you own an oil well or energy shares, is not bad news). Ditto for a whole host of commodities, even including gold of late. Don’t get me wrong, I am still buying gold every month. If it goes down I am happy, because that means I get more of those shiny little coins for the same amount of my paper money.Copper is at its six-month low, and Chinese stocks of the metal are said to be at all-time highs. There are reports from serious sources that Chinese commodity buyers (of coal, etc.) have lost their financing for long-term contracts at higher prices. Supposedly, there are some 30 large ships full of coal, sitting out of port waiting for the money to clear.

My last observation about Fed interest-rate policy is that it is punishing those who have worked and saved all their lives and had hoped to retire and be able to clip coupons. Unless you have a large amount of money, you can’t live off the interest income you get on what used to be the standard bond portfolio that was recommended for those who were either retired or close to retirement.

And it is killing pension funds....


Part of the reason the Fed cut rates was to stimulate the economy. Lower rates mean lower mortgages and credit-card and car payments. They give businesses access to cheaper capital and hopefully spurs profits and thus hiring. This puts more money into the hands of consumers.But low rates punish savers and leave them with less money, so that hurts retirees’ final consumer demand – or that is the view from the cheap seats where I sit. And retiree income and spending is a growing portion of the economy. Hurt that, and it’s a sector big enough to have consequences. I know that economists can argue that the trade-off is positive, but it seems to me we are defrauding a generation or two of hard-working savers. You did what you were supposed to do, and your reward is a ten-year bond at 1.5%. Since you paid off your mortgage a long time
ago, the lower rates don’t help you either! So you either cut back or move out the risk curve.

While better yields can be had with some serious research and homework, it is not easy. The Fed is not going to change its policy to help retirees and pension funds, so you are left to fend for yourselves. Sadly, the recent vote by the citizens of San Jose to dramatically cut their fire and police pension benefits, which they felt was necessary because their city council had for years promised more than the tax base could afford, is going to become normal over the next few years.

                                                    .............. John Mauldin